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Around 200,000 Americans may die every year ifglobal warmingraises average temperatures to 5.4 degree Fahrenheit ( 3 degree Celsius ) above pre - industrial temperatures and cities do n’t ready , a new study suggests .
In 106 urban center across the U.S. , where 65 % of the population live , an average of 36,444 people decease every yr between 1987 and 2000 of temperature - related causal agent . Three - quarters of these deaths were in people who were years 75 or older .
Cities will need to become better adapted for hotter temperatures to help mitigate the predicted rise in temperature-related deaths.
If warming reaches 5.4 F — which some climate experts warn may take place by theend of the century — and the country ’s ratio of elderly people increase as wait , this yearly demise toll could increase more than fivefold , the study predicted . This would amount to about one - third of the number of peoplewho currently die from cancereach year in the country .
Most of these additional deaths would fall out in northern land , whose urban center are n’t well adapted to high temperature .
However , cities that adapt to the oestrus , for instance by increasing access to air - conditioning ( AC ) , could concentrate these deaths by 28 % , the generator of the study write in a paper issue Aug. 15 in the journalGeoHealth .
colligate : This was the hot summertime ever recorded on ground
" Climate change is run to pose a number of challenge to world ; one of them will be temperature - touch on mortality,“Andrew Dessler , study author and prof of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University , told Live Science in an email . " We expect a large increase in the number of temperature - interrelate deaths over the coming C , due in the first place to an age population . "
If the median temperature rises less than 5.4 F , mood change will slimly fall temperature - connect deaths as fewer people will die from stale weather , the study found .
" mood change will affect people differently depending on where they live on and how much thaw we get , " Dessler said . " In general , the northern U.S. will see step-up in temperature - link up mortality , while the southern U.S. will see few deaths . " This is because the southerly U.S. is already well adapted to hot temperature , he said , so will be capable to handle more uttermost heat well than northerly states .
The bailiwick has several limitations . Firstly , it does n’t address other causes of death touch on by climate change , like those tied topest - spread diseasesormajor hurricane , for instance . The author also group " temperature - related death " together by modeling how the average telephone number of day-to-day death fluctuates in relation to changes in average daily temperatures , think they were n’t able to specify precise causes of destruction , such as by heat diagonal . By focusing on intermediate - to - large metropolis , it also does n’t plow how warming might affect rural areas .
Nevertheless , Vivek Shandas , a professor of climate adaptation at Portland State University who was not involve in the research , told Live Science that this report reinforce the need to rapidly exchange substructure , landscape and communities to account for hotter summer , especially in the North . This may include allowing for slap-up shade and movement of air in build plans , prop up the Department of Energy grid and expanding unripened space and Sir Herbert Beerbohm Tree canopy , he distinguish Live Science in an electronic mail .
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Although it is important to be better prepared for more extreme temperatures , it is also crucial to tackle the underlying issue of slenderize emissions of carbon paper dioxide and othergreenhouse gasesto near zero to stabilise the climate , Dessler suppose .
" High temperature this year have pass away a foresightful way in increasing the cognizance of warmth risks in the population and long - scale , cohesive policies would go a retentive agency in assist minimize next wellness impacts,“Stephen Fong , managing director for the Center for Integrative Life Sciences Education at Virginia Commonwealth University who was not postulate in the research , tell Live Science in an electronic mail .
" While instal air conditioning may be an obvious brusque - term solvent , it is more akin to a bandaid fix and we collectively need to address implicit in issues include those go to the increment in temperature , " he said .
