A study of the orbit of known space target has happen that the Earth is safe from impact events for at least around 1,000 years .
NASAand other observation tower dog the area of objects discover in the Solar System , keeping a particular middle on " near Earth physical object " ( NEOs ) 140 metre ( 460 feet ) and larger in size that could get devastation if they were to cross way with Earth . By discover the orbits , astrophysicist are able-bodied to guess the future reach of the object , and predict whether they put them in our part of the Solar System .
So far , stargazer have been able to predict the orbits of known target up to about 100 years in the future . The well newsworthiness is that " no known asteroid prominent than 140 meters in sizing has a significant fortune to hit Earth for the next 100 years " , according to NASA . In better news show , a squad led by Oscar Fuentes - Muñoz from the University of Colorado Boulder was able-bodied to go further , predicting the path of largerasteroids1,000 twelvemonth into the future .
" assess the wallop risk over long time scales is a challenge since orbital uncertainties maturate . To whelm this limitation we examine the evolution of the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance ( MOID ) , which bounds the close potential encounters between the asteroid and the Earth , " the squad explicate in theirpaper . " The evolution of the MOID highlights NEOs that are in the vicinity of the Earth for longer periods of time , and we pop the question a method to estimate the chance of a deep Earth encounter during these menses . "
Using this method , the squad were able to dominate out the absolute majority of NEOs from hit our planet within the next thousand years , and could estimate the probability of others strike us like a bunch of dinosaurs . The probability of being pip before the twelvemonth 3000 is front jolly low according to the squad , with the most - likely aim to gain us – 7482 ( 1994 PC1 ) – having only a0.00151 percentchance of a close encounter , go up the Earth closer than the sphere of the Moon .
Of naturally , not all object have been found , though estimation intimate we have find 95 percent of the target over 1 kilometer ( 0.62 miles ) in size , so there ’s a chance one of the single we have n’t found yet is head up mighty at us . Large asteroid impact on Earth , however , are passably rarified ( althoughnot as rareas we once thought ) , which we can recount by analyse impact Crater around the globe . Nevertheless , NASA has been preparing for the possibility , last year succeeding inredirectingan asteroid by slamming a probe into it .
The squad hopes that their approach can be used to identify potentially hazardous objects , as well as when we should be on the watch for close approach .
" The long - full term hazard ranking could be made available to the planetary defense mechanism community , " the squad conclude , " as the most hazardous NEOs should be physical object of pastime for more elaborate watching and future geographic expedition commission " .
The paper , which has been accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal , is available on preprint serverarXiv .
[ H / T : MIT Technology Review ]
